Closing Odds - The Ultimate Guide to Beating the Odds 
Closing odds – Online sports betting is a real business, and if you want to make money from it, you must handle it as such.
This means that serious bettors will not take any chances and will use every advantage available to them to counterbalance the house edge.
Juggling opening and closing odds is only one of many hurdles that must be overcome in order to prosper in this competitive climate.
We will teach you how to read closing odds and how to use probability and statistics to maximize their potential in our guide.
How to Place Closing Odds Bets in 2023
Don’t be intimidated by the word; it’s really simple to understand how to defeat closing odds. To optimize your winnings, all you need is an analytical approach and the patience to hunt for the highest odds margins.
Because the same system is used in other sports, if you understand how to read soccer odds, you will also know how to read baseball odds or boxing odds and how to use them in conjunction with opening odds.
In a nutshell, closing odds are the final value assigned to a specific event by the bookmaker. They are released minutes before the game and represent the final form of the opening odds. Their evolution is purely determined by market movements, therefore these odds can fall or rise in comparison to the opening value.
There are numerous factors that might influence this shift in odds, and we will focus on the most prevalent ones in our 2023 guide to help you be profitable in the long run. We’ve also put together a relegation betting guide with odds.
If you’re determined to gamble on closing odds at Betfair, we’ve put together a comprehensive guide on how to make a career on Betfair.
How do the closing odds work?
We believe that providing an example will help you grasp the method better than merely describing the closing odds meaning. As the term “closing odds” implies, these are the final odds you receive immediately before the game begins. We choose football as an example since it is the most straightforward sport to bet on, but this is a universal example that also works with NBA closing odds, NFL closing odds, and MLB closing odds, so you can apply it to any sport to increase your potential gains.
Assume PSG plays Marseille in the French first division, and a betting market like Betfair posts the early odds. PSG would be worth 1.50, a draw would be worth 4.50, and an away win would be worth roughly 5.50. Casual bettors typically bet on the favorites, causing bookmakers to modify the odds appropriately. The chances on PSG dropping to as low as 1.40, the draw remaining roughly the same, but the Betfair closing odds on Marseille winning rising to 6.00.
Once you understand how closing soccer odds work, you may leverage this knowledge to win from evs betting. Because you can predict and accept all odds movement, you may take advantage of these variances to maximize profits. If you want to gamble on the favorite, place your bets early, but if you want to bet on the underdog, wait until the game begins. You are basically gambling with low odds vs. high odds and analyzing their movements to win more.
Step-by-Step Guide to Betting on Closing Odds
You may employ football methods and systems to get the most out of what closing odds have to offer now that you understand what they are and how they function. There are several factors to consider in order to optimize your wins, but these are the four most important procedures that apply to all sorts of sports betting.
- Check how to discover closing odds for previous games in order to see how bookmakers set odds and change them based on how punters wager. Different sports betting sites use different techniques, but they all modify the odds based on how punters wager. The idea is to identify the biggest swings possible, as this will result in larger winnings if you make the correct call.
- Compare the opening odds provided by various bookmakers and, if necessary, register accounts with them. This is useful when betting on the over/under because the odds might fluctuate significantly. These changes can be huge in double-leg football matches, and you can get a lot of value by betting on over 2.5 goals and under 2.5 goals markets (for more information, see our value football betting guide). These are the most common, although the differential in opening and closing odds can also be used when betting on over 1.5 goals and under 1.5 goals.
- Spend time analyzing the match so you know which way the odds are likely to move. To devise the ideal staking strategy for low odds, you must first predict how much money people are ready to wager on the favorites. It pays to have accounts at bookies with statistics because it might help you save time on research. We also recommend that you look into our low-odds laying system.
- Finally, wager on your favorite team and market to capitalize on the odds fluctuation. It is often worthwhile to wait for the game to begin, presuming you have an account with a betting site that offers live streaming. This is because the in-play odds might follow the trend of the closing odds and vary throughout the first few minutes. These can be combined with other live betting tactics for football, tennis, basketball, and other sports.
Why should you care about closing odds?
Bookmakers will always gain an advantage by manipulating the odds, and there is nothing you can do about the basic house edge. To develop a lucrative football betting system, you must first discover how to take advantage of things that bookmakers cannot control.
Players betting on one team or the other cause the odds to fluctuate, and if you are patient enough, you will discover how the system works. The beauty of closing odds is that they allow you to maximize potential profits for both traditional point spread and money line betting as well as special markets.
Tips & strategies for beating the closing odds
You should aim to master the technique of utilising closing odds as soon as you discover how to place a bet online. These are some things to think about if you want to succeed where others fail and win as much as possible from each match without taking unnecessary risks.
- Bet early on favorites and late on underdogs – this is the most important advice for defeating closing odds and it applies to all sports. Learn how to bet on basketball, football, tennis, and other sports before betting on the favorites as soon as the starting odds are posted. Underdogs often have higher closing odds, but there are exceptions, so monitor odds movements at all times.
- Track the most popular teams – the biggest odds swings and fluctuations usually always influence the world’s best teams. Casual bettors would always prefer to wager on the greatest names in football, tennis, basketball, and other sports. That is why the variety is greatest here.
- Open numerous sports accounts – different bookies have varied betting terms and conditions, but all will change their money dependent on how bettors wager. If you want to maximize the closing odds technique, open accounts with multiple operators so that you can always cash in on the best odds in the market.
Efficient market theory and sports betting
Although sports betting is not an exact science, there is an economic theory that applies to online sports betting. According to efficient market theory, in the long term, actual prices will represent the true value of an underlying asset. When it comes to sports, the notion contends that the closing odds best reflect the disparity between the teams involved.
This idea is only partially correct because the closing odds truly reflect market sentiment. Essentially, they show how people feel about a certain team or player and how much they want them to win. While you cannot influence the movement of the odds, you can take advantage of these changes to wager on the best odds available.
The difference between opening and closing odds
When attempting to differentiate between opening and closing odds, time is everything. To allow punters adequate time to cast a wager, opening odds are normally announced 10 days or more before the event begins. Closing odds are those that are available minutes before kickoff and reflect all bets placed by punters as well as objective sports changes.
When a pattern begins, it usually continues in the opening few minutes of the game, so you can capitalize on the differences by betting in real time. If you open an account with the finest cash out betting sites, you will be able to withdraw your winnings without having to wait for the final whistle. This will inspire you to test the limits of closing odds, especially if you have the option of cashing out in-play.
The Benefits and Drawbacks of Betting on Closing Odds
• You optimize profits by betting on top odds
• You get a better understanding of how punters are betting
• You have more time to gather knowledge about the game
• If the odds drop, you may miss out on better opportunities
Closing odds are hardly a silver lining when compared to the house edge, but they can give you an advantage by increasing your earnings. Because players bet heavily on favorites, the closing odds on them will be lower than the opening odds (which were already low odds).
There are exceptions to the rule, of course, so investigate the market and watch the odds every step of the way to make an informed decision and win as much as possible.
Closing Odds Frequently Asked Questions:
Are closing odds better than opening odds?
You can bet on closing odds that are better than opening odds if you choose the correct match and markets. The market is volatile, and the opening and closing odds are nearly never the same.
How can I use closing odds to get an advantage?
Do a lot of research, read reviews on the teams you want to bet on and match previews. Bet properly and employ bankroll management to make luck’s influence essentially meaningless.
Are there any internet tools for betting on closing odds?
To maximize your return on investment, use free internet tools to track opening and closing odds. They are useful, but not a replacement for hands-on investigation, so compare the odds.
What are the dangers of wagering on closing odds?
The greatest risk is missing out on opening odds that are actually greater than closing odds because you misinterpret the available information. When this occurs, it is best to simply forgo the bet entirely.