Value Bet Explanation

Value football betting - in this article you will find the explanation of Value bet and all the info you need in order to make the right call

What Exactly Is Value Betting?

When you place a Value football betting, you compute the true probabilities of an event occurring. Then you compare this to the odds offered by the bookmaker to see whether you can earn a profit on a wager. This method of sports betting necessitates an understanding of expected value (EV bets) and the bookmaker margin.

To begin, the EV of each bet is the difference in probability between the bettor and the bookmaker. Second, the bookmaker margin is the gap between the genuine chance of an event occurring and the betting brand’s odds.

How to Locate Value Bets

Once you’ve figured out how to compute a Value football betting, you may apply it to your bets. However, before placing a value bet, you should understand the following betting terminologies and how they work.

To begin, you must understand the odds. These are the percentages that reflect your possible winnings in relation to your stake. For example, if you bet on 5/1 odds, you would receive five times your stake. A 5,000 NGN bet may result in a 25,000 NGN payment in this situation.

You must also understand the possibility of winning when betting. This is also known as implied probability, because it depicts the genuine likelihood of a bet paying off. In betting, the probability ranges from 1% to 100%.

Be aware that betting odds and value might fluctuate in the run-up to a match. The closing line, or final odds, may fluctuate due to a variety of reasons such as injuries, cancellations, and weather.

Calculating Odds and Probabilities for Value Bets

When looking for value bet choices, bettors must follow these steps:

  • To begin, divide 100 by 2.4 to calculate the bookmaker probability percentage of a sports bet.
  • Second, calculate the true probability by averaging the various odds.
  • Finally, multiply the real probability by the bookmaker probability and divide by the bookmaker probability.

For example, if Manchester United plays Liverpool, a bookmaker may provide United odds of 2.9 to win a 12 wager. 34.4% is obtained by dividing 100 by 2.9. The odds on Man United winning are as follows.

However, if you compare the average odds on other betting sites, you may discover that the genuine worth of a United victory is 2.1. Use this to compute true value, which is 100 divided by 2.1, or 47.6%.

Finally, subtract 47.6 and 34.4 to obtain 13.2. Then divide this number by the bookmaker’s probability, which equals 4.85. As a result, the expected value of the match between Manchester United and Liverpool is 2.6.

Strategy for Betting on Value

Using an effective Value football betting strategy necessitates extensive pre-match research. To calculate the expected value, you must first grasp a large number of statistics and keep track of team performance on a regular basis. Before attempting to calculate a value bet, consider the following betting guidelines.

To begin, use available team and individual data to aid your true value calculations, such as form, prior correct scores, and more specific numbers. Consider team shots, anticipated goals, possession, defensive performance, and key players. Then compare your results to those of the opposing side. If one team is stronger than the other, you will be able to detect the genuine odds more quickly.

Before calculating a Value football betting, you need also look at the market odds for the forthcoming match. To see the difference in odds posted by bookies, use a comparison checker. There is frequently a significant disparity between bookmaker odds for a match. As a result, you can discover which supplier offers the best value without having to perform any calculations.

Matched Betting vs. Value Betting

Match betting is an alternative to Value football betting, which is when you evaluate the genuine probability of a match outcome. When players utilise free bets or other promotions to cover bets and ensure at least one winner, this is known as matched betting.

A bettor can use matched betting to sign up to two bookies and take advantage of both free bet welcome bonuses. Then, using the free bet or matching deposit, users place bets on the same match but on rival teams.

For example, if Barcelona is playing Real Madrid, the customer can place one free bet on Barcelona and another on Madrid, or even a third to cover the tie. The punter will then win regardless of the outcome without risking any personal funds on a gamble.

Is Value Betting a Good Investment?

The majority of people trying to make a profit betting are looking for something profitable. Straight up gambling will never yield a profit, but by mastering Value football betting, you may make your bets pay off.

Is it profitable to bet on value? –  Identifying Value football betting and exclusively employing them proves that value betting is profitable when handled correctly and strictly. It is not without danger; losers might be anticipated and integrated into long-term plans and forecasts. Finally, if you can find value, you are shifting the advantage away from the bookmaker and towards yourself.

This guide will give you the most detailed information to help you locate Value football betting, how to seek for them, how to utilise them, and how to keep your edge over the bookies.

Is Value Betting Effective?

It undoubtedly does, but you must first learn the talent of determining true value. The greatest risk in this betting strategy is a false value, therefore understanding the difference between the two is critical. 

This tutorial will help you comprehend the distinction and send you in the proper way for value bets.

A value bet may not win every time, and it may not even make a profit over a given week or month, but long term earnings will speak to your ability to uncover value in your betting habits as long as you can recognise the value and have it in your favour.

You should be aware that you will not always bet on the most likely winner – see below.

How to Find Good Value Bets

To begin, consider an extreme but extremely simple example of a value bet. The true chance of the coin toss and its two outcomes is 50/50. There is a 50% possibility of either scenario occurring. This is proven by odds of Evens – the true odds based on the outcome’s true probability.

If you were offered chances of 3.00 (2/1) on either heads or tails landing, you would be getting a great deal.

True Odds of HeadsOdds OfferedValue?
2.001.50No
2.002.00No
2.002.10Yes
2.003.00Yes

In the table, we have three simple examples of odds being presented depending on a set probability.

With the genuine odds on the outcome resting at 2.00, any odds offered equal to or less than 2.00 do not qualify as value; but, when the odds exceed the true odds of 2.00, value is achieved.

How to determine how much value is in the odds.

So here is the next step, as you can see in the table above, odds of 2.10 and 3.00 both offer value. It doesn’t take a genius to figure out which one is more valuable than the other, but how can we communicate this in a way that allows us to quantify the value?

Probability is expressed in percentage terms of the outcome, such 50% for each alternative in the coin flip. Understand that this is 0.50 and apply the calculation (Probability x Decimal Odds) – 1 to it.  Any figure greater than 0 represents a value on a scale.

Let’s go over the table again.

Probabilityx Odds=-1Value
0.50x 1.500.75-0.25No
0.50x 2.001.000.00No
0.50x 2.101.050.05No
0.50x 3.001.500.50Yes

Another approach is to think of probability in terms of the occurrence and the implied probability indicated by the odds. So let us compare and contrast

Using the coin toss once more, the result was head.

  • 50% Real Probability
  • Implied probability is indicated by 3.00 decimal odds = 33.3%.

The parity of the real probability and the probability implied by the odds is used to represent and quantify your value here. In this scenario, the difference between 50% and a lesser probability based on the odds is the real probability. This is where you, as a punter, must act and seize the opportunity, gaining value and an advantage over the bookmaker.

Let’s put this in the table again to show the different scenarios and use some more decimal odds to show how value improves as price parity expands.

RealOddsImpliedDifference
50%1.5066%+16%
50%2.0050%+/-0
50%2.1047.6%-2.4%
50%2.2544.4%-5.6%
50%2.5040%-10%
50%2.7536.4%-13.6%
50%3.0033.3%-16.7%

Your edge is a lower implied probability over the real probability – the larger the minus figure, the better the value you are receiving, and as you can see in the example in the table, 2.4% is a definite edge for you, but a very small difference in the odds can make a HUGE difference in the value you are receiving.

  • 2.10 = 2.4% benefit
  • 2.25 = 5.6% • 2.50 = 10%
  • 2.75 = 13.6% • 3.00 = 16.7%

Find value in sports that you are well-versed in.

To detect a solid value bet, you must first have a thorough understanding of the sport on which you are betting in order to discover what variables favour the bet and make it appear so pricey.

Value football betting - in this article you will find the explanation of Value bet and all the info you need in order to make the right call

Concentrate on Sports You Know Best

Knowing more about a certain sport, team, player, or runner increases your chances of identifying value. One of the easiest ways to uncover value bets is to price markets yourself before they occur. This is not as difficult as you may think, and this tutorial to designing your own odds may be useful.

By pricing events based on how you believe they will unfold, you can then compare your own market to the actual market when it forms and search for differences. 

In such situation, the picks that are considerably larger at the bookies than at your own prices should be the value calls. The greater the disparity, the greater the value.

Laying for Value

Value betting can also be used to lay on the exchanges. Again, it is frequently advisable to decide on prices before forming a market with the bookies. Any option that is a lower price with the bookies than your own prices should be considered a lay because it is underpriced based on your odds. The more underpriced the chosen outcome, the better a lay it will be.

Example

You may believe a horse has a good probability of winning, but you believe it should be an even money bet. The oddsmakers have set it at 1/2. This ought to be a value lay.

Does this imply that you should always back the most likely winner?

Do not seek the most likely outcome.

In some sports, you will mostly be competing against the event’s most likely winner, but as long as you are obtaining value, you will win in the long run.

Backing something regarded valuable is almost never a wager on the most likely winner or favourite. Most bets will be placed on an outsider or a higher priced fancied option.

Of course, there will be moments when the favourite is both the most likely winner and the best value, but this will happen less frequently than backing against the favourite in a sporting event, whether it is horse racing, football, a tennis match, or any other sport.

Example

You see a horse that is listed at 5/1 but has a 33% chance of winning (fair price 2/1). Even if your estimate is correct, you still have a 67% probability of losing! IN THE LONG RUN, assuming you are correct, if you encounter this situation three times, you can expect one winner (paying 5) and two losers (losing 1), for a profit of three.

Converting Probability to Odds

A simple reference for converting percentage probabilities to fractional or decimal odds. Remember the fundamentals, and you’ll be able to detect good deals before they’re gone.

Take a look at the conversion.

Does this imply that you should always back the most likely winner?

Do not seek the most likely outcome.

In some sports, you will mostly be competing against the event’s most likely winner, but as long as you are obtaining value, you will win in the long run.

Backing something regarded valuable is almost never a wager on the most likely winner or favourite. Most bets will be placed on an outsider or a higher priced fancied option.

Of course, there will be moments when the favourite is both the most likely winner and the best value, but this will happen less frequently than backing against the favourite in a sporting event, whether it is horse racing, football, a tennis match, or any other sport.

Example

You see a horse that is listed at 5/1 but has a 33% chance of winning (fair price 2/1). Even if your estimate is correct, you still have a 67% probability of losing! IN THE LONG RUN, assuming you are correct, if you encounter this situation three times, you can expect one winner (paying 5) and two losers (losing 1), for a profit of three.

Converting Probability to Odds

A simple reference for converting percentage probabilities to fractional or decimal odds. Remember the fundamentals, and you’ll be able to detect good deals before they’re gone.

Take a look at the conversion.

Any bet can be considered valuable.

Short-priced favourites can be good buys. If a horse is priced at 1/4, this is considered fair odds if it has an 80% probability of winning. However, if you believe it has a 90% chance of winning, the odds are reasonable.

Value football betting - in this article you will find the explanation of Value bet and all the info you need in order to make the right call

 Value Betting Examples

Many value bets are based on forecasting the form of football teams, horses, greyhounds, or anything else. However, there must be a valid cause for them to return to form for it to be considered a value bet rather than just a huge priced guess.

Patrick Veitch is an Englishman.

It is simpler to locate value at Leicester than it is in a race as well-attended as the Derby.

In football, a team may regain form once a key player returns from suspension or injury. They could possibly have had three or four tough games in a row that they lost, leading to the perception that they are out of shape. However, playing an easier side may result in a turnaround in their fortunes.

A horse may like a certain type of course or going and may have raced without its preferred conditions for many races in a row. When it returns to its preferred conditions, it will most likely be priced based on its most recent performance, which will be poor. It can be predicted to improve for a return to its favourable conditions, implying that the price to win is too high, making it a value bet.

There can also be value in opposing big names in football, horse racing, or any other sport. 

The Coral Eclipse at Sandown had three primary contenders in the 2007 flat racing season: Authorised, George Washington, and Notnowcato. While we are speaking in retrospect, it is still a fair example of how one may have arrived at the conclusion of a value bet.

  • Authorised was sent off at 4/7 despite having never raced at the top level over 10 furlongs. • George Washington was sent off at 4/1 despite having never raced at the top level over 10 furlongs.
  • Notnowcato was sent off at 7/1 after winning two group one races, one of which was over the same distance on the same ground. 
  • There were more than three competitors in this race, but they were the top three in the market.
  • We had a situation in which two shorter priced runners were priced relatively low, and even odds on in the case of Authorised, yet an opponent in Notnowcato was a greater price, had won over the same distance as the race, and had previously demonstrated adequate class to win a top-level race.
  • It is reasonable to suppose that Notnowcato would be a ‘value bet’ for the race.
  • If a value betting hunter had gotten to that conclusion, they would have been highly rewarded.
  • Identified Value Bet and Success
  • Notnowcato won by 1 1/4 lengths, and even those who merely backed for place money came away with a tidy profit.
  • It’s simple to look back and locate a successful value bet example; the key now is to find a race in the future with the same possibility, identify it, bet, and win.

Each Way Value Betting

Value bets do not have to win to be lucrative; there are several value each way options available. 

Some horses in large field handicaps with four places paid are quite likely to place but extremely unlikely to win. Backing them each way can frequently essentially offer you a free win bet on them if you believe they will at least make the frame. 

Alternatively, a horse could be so expensive that just getting a site could be quite profitable.

Each Way betting Value is more difficult to uncover than you might think when you consider the bookmaker’s edge on each way prices, but if you know how to seek for it, you can find it.

Example

You might bet a horse at 33/1 in a 16-horse handicap not because you think it will win, but because you believe it has a good chance of finishing in the money.

In races featuring a very short-priced favourite, a pick might also offer each way value. All of the other runners will be in the high single figures as a result, making backing each way a profitable bet if all it needs to do is follow the favourite home to generate a profit. These are known as ‘bad each way’ races by the bookies, and while stakes are frequently restricted, it is not difficult to get a bet on.

Value Hunting in Every Way

Is that big-priced runner more likely to finish in a place than the place odds suggest? That is your worth!

The Benefits of Value Betting

In theory, the majority of bets you should place should be deemed value bets. It is acceptable to place your fair share of bets at fair odds if you believe it is a very likely winner, but you should never gamble on anything that you believe offers poor value.

By backing value calls, you should be lucrative in the long run because it only takes one win to significantly increase your betting bank.

The Drawbacks of Value Betting

Value betting can be challenging at times if you don’t have a thorough understanding of what you’re betting on. It takes time to price up a variety of events before the bookmakers do, and if not done correctly, it can lead to errors in determining what is valuable and what isn’t.

Betting on value shots rather than most likely wins should return a profit in the long run, but you must be willing to accept losing streaks in the short term. Betting Discipline is essential to avoid chasing short-term losses, and you must try not to give up during a losing streak since if you are betting on actual value bets, it should only be a matter of time before you back a winner and are back in the black.

Conclusion

Michael Adams
Experienced writer in iGaming Industry. Worked for the big companies in the industry, now I took the challenge to grow with a new company and a new website. The future is bright and I am happy to be part of it!

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