What does EVS mean in betting? | Expected Value Explained [2024] 📊

The expected value is a term that most sports bettors are acquainted with, but few are aware of its actual significance. Fewer people use the concept while placing bets. Here’s all you need to know about expected value and why it’s the most crucial component in determining your return on investment in sports betting. Read further our article to find out what does EVS mean in betting.

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what does evs mean in betting

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Exemplified – What does EVS mean in betting? ⚖️

In its most basic form, expected value in sports betting refers to the difference in likelihood between a bettor’s expectations and those of the sports bookmaker.

Betting lines, which are assigned to all money lines, point spreads, totals, and other types of bets by oddsmakers, are visible to bettors. Almost all authorized sports bookies in the United States employ US odds, which assign positive numbers (like +100, +222, etc.) to the underdogs and negative ones (like -120, -155, etc.) to the favorites. In this system, as the probability of winning falls, the line number increases, and as the probability of winning increases, the line number decreases. This indicates a +100 underdog has a better chance of winning than a +240 underdog (according to the book). Instead, a -190 favorite is more likely to win than a -120 favorite.

These line numbers can be converted into an implied probability by bettors. If a card offers a +100 line to a team, such as the Seahawks versus. Patriots, that means the club has a 50% chance of winning or a toss. If a bettor believes the Seahawks have a 50 percent chance of winning this game, they will assign a positive expected value (+ EV). If the bettor believes the team has a less than 50% chance of winning, he or she will assign a negative expected value (-EV).

What does EVS mean in betting – What is the significance of expected value for sports bettors? ✨

Sharp bettors have a fundamental advantage over most other bettors and one of the few advantages they may take over a sports bet by weighing the bets according to their projected value.

A common mistake made by new sports bettors is to miss the board at the last minute or to watch the NFL odds on Sunday morning in the hopes of picking the day’s winners. Those seeking expected value, or + EV, look at the lines (and, by extension, the probability) that odds provide for each game as early as possible to determine whether a bet is overrated or undervalued. The top NFL bettors have a tendency of looking for value early in the week. By Thursday, odds have changed their lines, and value bets are only available for a short time in an efficient market like the NFL before the market catches up.

Bets with a positive expected value are a fundamental approach for sports betting that is underutilized by casual gamblers, often known as “public.” An infrequent bettor resembles a roulette player waiting to be called the color. A stockbroker who is aiming to sell high and buy low is known as a + EV bettor.

Even though most sports bettors exaggerate their betting knowledge, it is nearly hard to win in the long run simply by hoping to find winners. Hundreds of thousands of sporting events have been evaluated by Las Vegas sports bookmakers (and now more than a dozen additional states). To discover the most efficient lines, they employ the best odds, programs, and algorithms. Even the most successful bettors “only” win about 55 percent to 56 percent of the time.

Many sports bookies in Las Vegas, New Jersey, Illinois, Colorado, and Pennsylvania offer consumers betting incentives, free beverages, and other perks for a reason.

What does EVS mean in betting – The price of vig

Almost every online sports betting site, also known as vigorish or “vig,” imposes a fee of at least 5% (4.54 percent to be exact) on the betting line. If a sports bookmaker gives both teams a 50% chance of winning, the lines for both teams will be -110 (52.38 percent default probability) rather than +100. This means that bettors must pay an additional 5% fee for each wager, whether they win or lose. To reach a tie, a bettor must win 52.38 percent of his bets.

However, sports bookies have typically made between 5% and 8% of the total money gambled, implying that sports betting provides participants with some of the highest odds of winning of any legal type of gambling. Only a small percentage of sports gamblers make a large profit.

A gambler must think critically in order to do so. Long-term success is not guaranteed by expected value bets, but long-term failure is guaranteed by gambling without EV considerations.

What does placing a bet with a positive anticipated value look like?

A bettor + EV, to use another comparison, is like a savvy supermarket shopper. When the prices of an item are greater than they were on a prior visit, the savvy shopper observes and finds a replacement. The same customer does, in fact, purchase a discounted item that he would not have purchased otherwise.

The same principle applies to sports betting. Rather than betting on a team that will almost certainly win but at a high price, + EV bettors scour the online sports betting industry for the widest gaps between what they believe will happen and what the book, through its betting lines, says will happen. They aren’t searching for the best team in terms of performance, but rather the best value.

Consider the following scenario: a sports bookmaker sets the Detroit Lions as -150 money line favorites against the Chicago Bears. A normal gambler believes the Lions will win, thus he or she will bet on them.

A savvy bettor recognizes that the bookmaker’s line means that Leos have a 60% chance of winning. Although he thinks the Lions will win, he thinks it’s a lot less likely than the book predicts. In this case, he turns his attention to the Bears, who are down +130 money, which amounts to a 43.48 percent chance of winning. Even if the +EV bettor believes the Lions are the superior club and have a higher chance of winning, he believes the Bears have a 43.58 percent chance of winning. The value is with the Bears, thus the +EV bettor will bet on them. + EV can occasionally be found during a game since gamblers looking for advantages at sports bookies that provide in-game bets are hunting for it.

In other words, expected value gamblers aren’t betting on who they think will win, but on which scenario is most likely to occur; a + EV bettor would occasionally bet on a team he expects to lose if the value is there.

What does EVS mean in betting – How can I find + EV by calculating odds? 

Taking a probability from a betting line may appear to be a sophisticated math, but it is actually the most basic part of EV betting.

If the card line is a positive value in US odds, the formula is 100 divided by the line number plus 100. It appears as follows:

100 / (Line + 100)

If the card’s playing line is +110, divide 110 by 110 plus 100. It is important for bettors to remember to add the plus 100 line first. This is how it would look:

100 / (110 + 100) = 47.62(%)

It’s just as simple to convert negative odds. It’s the line split by line + 100 this time. It appears as follows:

Line / (Line + 100)

For example, if you use -190, you’ll get the following. Before dividing the numerator, the formula requires adding the two components of the denominator (or the second half of the equation):

-190 / (-190 +100) = 65.52(%)

A bettor can therefore place a bet + EV by assessing the chance of such an appearance in relation to the probability supplied by the card, rather than just guessing whether a team will win, lose, or cover.

What does EVS mean in betting – A classic example of the Vig price 🧾

The probabilities in the example above do not add up to 100%, which is something that bettors should be aware of. The total percentages between Chicago (+130 / 43.48 percent chance of winning) and Detroit (-150 / 60 percent chance of winning) in the Bears-Lions example on the page equal 103.48 percent. 

In the last “even” bet, the two teams were each given a line of -110, which means they had a 52.38 percent chance of winning. This is due to vig, which is charged on almost every stake.

In the long term, this seemingly little cost adds up, making it impossible for sports bettors to make a profit with much less profit. When flipping a coin, a really equal bet should be +100 heads, +100 tails. Instead, sportsbooks provide -110 odds on both the head and tail of the Super Bowl coin toss. 

Sports bets on the Super Bowl coin toss are practically assured to win money, regardless of the outcome, because the odds are roughly split between the ends and tails. This is the quintessential example of a -EV bet, because the probability of both ends or tails is 50%, yet sports bookmakers “charge” 52.38 percent for the bet.

Many conventional sports bets operate in a similar manner. If, for example, a about equal number of bookmakers bet on the favorite to cover and the favorite not to cover, the bookmaker is guaranteed to win money.

Of course, not every sporting wager is a coin toss. These are the ones that + EV bettors are looking for, keeping a level head and waiting patiently for a betting line that looks good.

How do I figure out what does EVS mean in betting for me? ⚖

Sports bookmakers would go out of business if everyone just gambled on EV + bets.

Unfortunately, there is no surefire way for bettors to determine which bets have a positive expected value. Some bettors rely on their own algorithms, while others monitor injury news, and still others have developed a semi-reliable sense of the market and, for the most part, recognize when it’s time to “buy low,” allowing them to beat them. the final line

The books, as previously stated, draw their lines based on decades of experience and significant financial and human capital resources. The tremendous intellectual and financial riches of a sports betting operator is used to generate a line that an average gambler cannot practically replicate with near-perfect precision. It’s basically an educated guess for the vast majority of sports bettors, based on what they know and have observed over the course of a season.

This isn’t to say that the + EV search isn’t useful. When weighing your betting options against the allowed odds, there is no magic bullet, but bettors can (and should) analyze every measure at their disposal, including previous performances, current performances, injuries, weather, trends, and so on.

What does EVS mean in betting – More money 💸

The thrill of picking a team, whether it’s based on a gut feeling, the colors of the jersey, the horoscope, or anything else that drives someone to wager money on a future event they can’t control, is a big part of sports betting. It’s not a winning strategy, no matter what superstition, random event, or coincidence pattern you claim to explain a wager.

The expected value dissection should be a component of a gambler’s approach if he wants to make money in the long run. Here are some pointers to get you started:

Don’t put your money on your favorite team

Many bettors enjoy the added excitement of putting money on their favorite team’s performance. EV + no bettors You don’t consider the expected value when you wager with your heart. It’s time to take off your shirt when you place a bet; your favorite team should be the one that delivers them the most value that day.

What does EVS mean in betting – Don’t put your money on the favorite team of everyone

Just as a bettor should not consider his or her emotional attachment while making a wager, fans of certain teams should not buy them from the general public. The Dallas Cowboys and Pittsburgh Steelers of the NFL, the New York Yankees and Los Angeles Dodgers of MLB, and the Boston Celtics Dodgers and Los Angeles Lakers of the NBA have all gotten a lot of attention from the press and sports fans in general.

As previously said, most bettors just want to profit from their team’s victories, even if it is not a profitable, long-term strategy. Rather from following the herd, bettors + EVs should think about if a popular club is good value. Typically, these teams’ large handle forces the cards to overshadow the lines towards their opponents, creating a potential opportunity + EV to blur the high-profile teams.

What does EVS mean in betting – Don’t put your money on everyone’s favorite league

This antarianism extends not just to sports and leagues, but also to individuals. The WNBA receives a fraction of the attention that the NFL receives, which means it receives a fraction of the attention from bookies. This is not to say that they don’t have time to make solid lines, but niche markets such as women’s basketball, PGA golf betting, and college football, in general, take up a lot of their time. Supercomputers and statisticians have long since replaced the “good old days” with a lone bookmaker and a casino table, but the excitement (and handling) around prominent sports is virtually driving the bookies to assure that the lines for most bets are accurate. I make money by playing video games. 

Of course, they don’t want to lose money on a less popular event, but it’s not as crucial to their success. When everyone at the sports bookmaker is glued to the Red Zone channel, the best value could (and typically is) be found on the TV that no one else is watching.

Keep an eye out for old favorites playing at home

This sentiment has spread to an increasing number of local sports betting marketplaces. Bookmakers in several of the new states that have legalized sports betting, such as New Jersey and Pennsylvania, are noting unusual behaviors in hometown teams like the Philadelphia Eagles, New York Giants, and Pittsburgh Steelers.

Keep an eye out for big favorites

Bettors enjoy betting on the finest teams, in addition to renowned franchises across the country. This raises the price of the favorite, lowering its worth. This isn’t to say that betting on the underdog is always a wise idea. The coverage of the underdogs is just as frequent as that of the favorites. Again, a bettor with EV must analyze the value assigned to both the underdogs and the favorites, and then determine if there is a mismatch between how the teams are weighed and how the book is played. People pay a lot more attention to the teams at the top of their league than the teams at the bottom, and betting dollars naturally flow to the top as a result. However, if parishioners take the time to weigh their value, the disadvantaged can lose the increased value, while the masses are left in front of the heavy favorites.

What does EVS mean in betting – No Bet is usually the best bet

Although bettors should weigh the strengths and weaknesses of both favorites and underdogs, no one deserves to bet the majority of the time. Sports bookmakers have a significant advantage once again. Finding disparities in their worth is quite challenging. To not only assign value to a team, but also to discover one of the few flaws in sports betting lines, extensive research, training, and understanding are required. Many gamblers will wager on every game of the day on an NFL Sunday. A bettor with a positive expected value only bets on those he believes are valuable. Objectively, this is less “fun” than attempting to reach a 16-stage bet, but it is also far less likely to earn money than a few well-placed bets.

Look around

To continue with the supermarket analogy, a customer should not only hunt for the greatest pricing in a specific store, but for the best prices in general. Wise bettors are hunting for the greatest lines, just as savvy consumers might buy things from one store and food from another. For a rookie, a difference of +155 over +150 may not seem significant, but for a + EV bettor, every additional percentage point goes a long way toward long-term success. This is one of the reasons why smart people (and the general public who bet on sports) want deep, competitive markets with a dozen (or more) sports betting licenses. If a market has only one legal sports betting market and the sports bookmaker lines offer minimal value, it isn’t much better than having no legal sports betting at all, in the perspective of a perceptive individual.

Examine early and often

The true sharpshooters strike when the lines are at their most vulnerable, which is usually right after they are released. The beginning values have not yet been modeled by the sharp (and later the masses) in the form of the highest efficiency, despite the fact that the opening lines are still in a better position than any typical bettor might assign (or best value). A line may not move much (or at all) between opening and starting the game, but for lucrative bets, every little bit counts. + EV bettors should get in line as soon as possible in order to find a decent value. After smart individuals and the general public have gone through it, the value is usually lower than it was when it began.

Conclusion – What does EVS mean in betting?

Only if you want to have a long-term chance of escaping. Sports betting has every advantage imaginable, which is exacerbated by the vig. Trying to uncover valuable bets is the best (and for all intents and purposes only) strategy to counter. This is considerably better for both you and your bank account.

Michael Adams
Experienced writer in iGaming Industry. Worked for the big companies in the industry, now I took the challenge to grow with a new company and a new website. The future is bright and I am happy to be part of it!

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